Brick after brick: Threes haunt Gilas Pilipinas anew

CJ Perez's 15 points for Gilas Pilipinas went to naught as they fell to a narrow loss at the hands of visiting New Zealand in the 2027 FIBA Basketball World Cup Asian Qualifiers at the SM Mall of Asia Arena in Pasay on Thursday, Feb. 26. (Photo: FIBA)

In a game it lost by three points, one of the biggest what-ifs for Gilas Pilipinas in their 69-66 defeat to New Zealand in the second round of the 2027 FIBA Basketball World Cup Asian Qualifiers was their 30 missed three-pointers.

If the Philippines had made just two more of those shots, they would have already secured a spot in the next round. On Thursday, Feb. 26, they managed only seven of 37 from beyond the arc.

Three-point shooting has been a recurring issue since Gilas’ back-to-back lopsided wins over Guam in the previous window, when the team converted only 28.57% of its attempts. Against New Zealand, that number fell below 24%. As of writing, the Philippines ranks last among 16 teams in three-point percentage in the Asian Qualifiers.

Individual numbers are equally telling. Chris Newsome is technically the most efficient shooter at 2-of-3 (66.7%) across three games, though on minimal volume. When attempts are factored in, CJ Perez leads at 3-of-9 (33.3%). Justin Brownlee and Kevin Quiambao, who both shot above 40% from three during the 2025 FIBA Asia Cup, have combined for just 5-of-27 (18.5%) so far. Dwight Ramos, Gilas’ second-leading scorer in this window, is 1-of-12 from deep.

The trend was already visible during the Asia Cup, when the Philippines ranked 12th out of 16 teams in three-point percentage at 30.1%, averaging 8.8 made threes on 29 attempts per game. Tournament leader China shot 39.9% from long range. Gilas ultimately finished seventh.

Basketball analytics provide context for why these numbers matter. In his book “Basketball on Paper,” American statistician Dean Oliver identified shooting, turnovers, rebounding, and free throws as the “four factors of basketball success.” Oliver noted that teams must convert at least 33% of their three-point attempts to produce the same expected value as a 50% two-point shot. He measured efficiency through effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the added value of three-pointers, as cited in a FIBA preview. Gilas is operating below that benchmark.

Kai Sotto’s absence is part of the conversation. The 7-foot-3 center has been out since tearing his anterior cruciate ligament during his stint in Japan’s B.League and missed the Asia Cup. He skipped this window to focus on recovery, according to his agent Chao Espaldon.

An ESPN analysis highlighted Sotto’s ability to operate from the high post and as a roller in two-man actions — skills that create driving lanes and open perimeter opportunities. Those attributes were evident when Gilas snapped a four-game skid against New Zealand during the Asia Cup Qualifiers in November 2024. Without his size and playmaking gravity, the floor has shrunk.

Still, Sotto’s return will not automatically solve Gilas’ biggest problem: reliance on Brownlee.

“He’s about 80 percent of our game plan,” New Zealand coach Judd Flavell told reporters in the post-match media conference, as quoted by Tiebreaker Times. “Traditionally, the Philippines would run a lot of triangle [offense]. We’re very familiar with it from the last three games we played against the Philippines. Wherever he is on the floor, we know the ball is coming back to Brownlee.”

The Tall Blacks held the resident Barangay Ginebra import to just four points on 2-of-10 shooting, his lowest output in a Gilas jersey. When he was contained, the offense struggled to generate quality looks. Shooting from deep is not just a matter of confidence but also about shot creation and spacing.

The Philippines must improve ball movement and off-ball actions to create a dynamic perimeter attack, including reliable outside shooting, according to an ESPN report. That would ease the burden on Brownlee and make the offense less predictable. It is an assignment for coach Tim Cone, especially with powerhouse Australia awaiting them on Sunday, March 1.

The last time they met, the Boomers fired seven three-pointers in the first quarter and never looked back, eliminating Gilas from medal contention in the Asia Cup. With another tough matchup ahead, Gilas must make its perimeter shots count. Before their supportive Filipino crowd, they need to pose a real outside threat to stay competitive and potentially pull off an upset.

“I’m not going to sit here and pretend that I’m happy with our performance,” Cone said, as reported by Spin.ph. “But the bottom line, we are not going to take any pride in almost winning or making the game close or whatever. We showed up to win, and we didn’t do that tonight.”

Gilas Pilipinas didn’t just lose by three points. It lost the math of modern basketball, which requires more than star power. Until the team solves its three-point problem, the missed triples will continue to haunt them.